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Well said, Ann! Thanks for publishing that important track record. When I similarly tracked that same source in the 1980s and '90s, I found a parallel accuracy offset rate like what you show for all years except the middle three. It was fairly easy to take the annual forward prediction and estimate the markdown you could expect you see when actual results were published the next year.

Our separate independent evergreen salary budget increase surveys likewise verify that comp people tend to shoot high. Their top management committees usually alter the recommendations based on different metrics than competitive pay movement projections.

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Great article Anne. If anything my initial thoughts were of surprise as to how close the reality was to the prediction. Worryingly I wonder if the 'accuracy' of the middle years actually reflects a blind following of the market during the 'good times' rather than a period to be held up as exemplar.

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