HR in 2022

The world of rewards in 2022 may feature scary aspects where constantly-monitored employees are overworked, paid only for performance and pitted against each other, only to be discarded if found wanting, according to a major survey.  An alternative prediction was that the employer of the future would be dedicated to enriching individual worker talents and fulfilling personal interests while minimizing environmental impact.  The third possibility described a world featuring networks of independent contractors cooperating in virtual work relationships. 

These predictions came from PwC, the consulting firm that polled 10,000 people in the US, UK, Germany, India and China and over 500 HR managers across the world for this report.  They say,“the recruitment, reward and employee engagement strategies likely to be most relevant” merely eight years from now will include sensors monitoring employee psychological behaviors, a Chief Performance Officer title combining HR and Finance functions, and remote work extending to include surgery and other professional services. 

Wisely hedging their bets to cover all possibilities, the consultants offer three scenarios for the future world of work they see for 2022.

1. large corporations become mini-states with social roles
2. specialization promotes the rise of modular collaborative networks
3. business strategy follows social and environmental agendas 

As skill gaps grow and the velocity of change accelerates, HR is predicted to go one of three different ways, becoming more proactive and vitally strategic, outsourced as a transactional function, or the driver of corporate social responsibility.  Quite a range of options are expected in this three-cornered universe:

• Corporate is King:  HR becomes a major player at the big table, driving a relentless capitalistic pressure to perform, with intrusive effects on personal freedoms;

• Small is Beautiful:  HR is considered essentially irrelevant except as an outside vendor coordinating independent contractor services;

• Companies Care:  HR plays the “company conscience” role as ethical/environmental motives dominate employer strategies.

Few of these interesting predictions seem to include most of the traditional work relationships found in HR today.  Most enterprises tend to take the capitalistic approach.  Evidence is scarce to expect that many will refocus their reward systems to meet those new general standards predicted to be the reality only eight years from now. 

I wonder if that means that the new models will swiftly effectively replace all the old ones.  That hasn’t  happened in the past.  Even in this Twenty-first Century, feudal work patterns and sweatshops like in the beginning of the industrial revolution can still be found along with Fredrick Taylor’s scientific management versions.  It is hard to imagine all that vested tradition being suddenly swept away by new outbursts of capitalism on steroids, social responsibility objectives and/or snazzy new technology enabling more remote workers and networked independent contractor relationships. 

If the seeds of the new HR approaches forecasted for the next decade are not found already deeply imbedded in current practices, it seems doubtful that the globe will experience changes as dramatic as those, particularly not as quickly as they are promised.  Read the report yourself.  Do you see many reward systems consistent with those predictions existing in today’s workplace?  

E. James (Jim) Brennan is Senior Associate of ERI Economic Research Institute, the premier publisher of interactive pay and living-cost surveys. After over 40 years in HR corporate and consulting roles throughout the U.S. and Canada, he’s pretty much been there done that (articles, books, speeches, seminars, radio/TV, advisory posts, in-trial expert witness stuff, etc.), serves on the Advisory Board of the Compensation and Benefits Review and will express his opinion on almost anything.

Image "The Word Future On Wood Board" courtesy of zirconicusso/FreeDigitalPhotos.net

Comments

[Chris Dobyns]

Well, this was certainly a fun read - and strangely reminiscent of a similar thread I read (http://www.worldatwork.org/community/discussions/discuss.jsp?did=38753), almost exactly one year ago. Even the relative [past/future] timeframe(s) were similar (don't you just I hate it when PwC copies stuff . . .).

Glancing through the PwC report, I saw a surprising number of similarities between the predictions - despite the one-year separation. Suspect I will out of the workforce by 2022, but it will be interesting (and unnerving) to see what actually unfolds and takes hold.

[E. James (Jim) Brennan]

Do you suspect they used a "secret sauce" to merely "update" it? I got a "This topic is no longer available" message at your link.

[Jacque Vilet]

PwC has done 2 other surveys on orange, blue and green worlds. One in 2011 and another 2008. I haven't gone back and read them but it would be interesting to see if there are changes in the current one.

The blue world interests me because there have been articles in the Economist saying that huge multinationals will have more power than governments in the future.

And in comparing companies to governments now ---Wal-Mart's sales revenues are higher than the GDPs of all but 25 countries, according to Rothkopf --- CEO of the FP Group.

The extreme case of capitalism I think.

[E. James (Jim) Brennan]

Multinationals spanning many nations are frequently bigger than individual countries. That's not a new development, since the term "banana republic" has been around for over a century. The Maldives and Philippines are current examples.

The capitalist approach seems more "alive" today than the other two alternatives. But, of course, things WILL change.

[Warren Heaps]

Forget PwC's predictions. Watch this 15 minute video entitles Humans Need Not Apply (www.youtube.com/watch?v=7Pq-S557XQU).

Afterwards, which jobs will even remain?

Gets you thinking......

[Tony Bergmann-Porter]

"Multinationals spanning many nations are frequently bigger than individual countries."

I look forward to an explanation of why this might be a bad thing. All in all, you are apt to find considerably more meritocracy and procedural justice, and significantly less stupidity, racism, sexism, homophobia and other pathologies in a global multinational.

[E. James (Jim) Brennan]

No one claimed it was "a bad thing," Tony. It is simply a neutral fact, independent of any value judgment. One can argue about how power is used, for good or for ill, but that's not the subject here.

History repeats itself, perhaps. There were at least four nations who created East India Companies over the last 500 years. The British crown corporation reflected a number of the attributes named in the PwC report. Even Canada still has crown corporations.

[Jacque Vilet]

Good video Warren. Don't know if you've read The End of Work by Jeremy Rifkin but it was written in 1995 and eerily like the video. His prediction of what people will do is interesting. Give it a read. When I first read it in 1995 I thought it was baloney --- a reread in the last year gave me pause . . .

[Chris Dobyns]

Sorry Jim, I got confused about your "secret sauce" reference and started looking around for some sort of sauce that might be "secret" here at work . . .

Yes, looks like something was awry with the original hyperlink. This one (http://www.worldatwork.org/community/discussions/discuss.jsp?did=38809&tid=38809&frm=sr) seems to be working.

[E. James (Jim) Brennan]

Aha! That discussion covers a 1998 Workforce survey projected to predict 2025. Not done by the same folks, it appears, although similar ideas appear. Also has some interesting thoughts, like:
•As labor supply and outsourcing increases, labor unions will gradually disappear entirely
•With the need to maximize incomes to maintain living standards, work/life balance will gradually lose emphasis and importance